Percent of first-year students beginning postsecondary at a North Carolina institution who are still enrolled in any postsecondary program one year later.
The persistence rate is a more complete metric of whether students are continuing their postsecondary enrollments than the retention rate, which measures the share of students who are enrolled at the same postsecondary institution one year later.
Persistence rates measure how well students are continuing in their education; retention rates measure how well institutions retain their first-year students.
North Carolina’s first-year persistence rate was 77%, placing our state 14th among all states in 2018. Georgia had the highest first-year persistence rate among southern states (78%) while the District of Columbia had the highest first-year persistence rate overall (89%).
By 2030, the goal is to have 80% of North Carolina’s first-year undergraduate students persist to their second year. This goal was set by the myFutureNC Commission.
Initial enrollment in a postsecondary program is just the first step toward the goal of postsecondary degree or certificate attainment. Following enrollment, students must continue their enrollment to degree completion, typically referred to as persistence. First-year persistence rates are a key indicator, as the greatest share of postsecondary dropouts occur during the first year than any other time.
Persistence to degree completion is a challenge for both individual students and the institutions they are attending, and overall patterns of persistence and retention can amplify and exacerbate inequalities shown in college access.
At the state level, increases in persistence rates increase the likelihood of degree completions. Higher persistence rates may mean that students are better prepared in high school for postsecondary programs.
North Carolina needs 3,000 more first-year students to continue to their second year of postsecondary to meet the statewide first-year persistence rate goal.
The first-year persistence rate of North Carolina undergraduates has been steadily improving. In 2010, North Carolina’s first-year persistence rate was 73%, ranking 29th among the states. Over the next eight years, our first-year persistence rate increased to 77% and a rank of 14th in 2018. First-year persistence rates in North Carolina have steadily pulled away from the national average since 2015: NC was three percentage points above than the national average in 2018.
There are well-documented differences in student persistence and retention by:
These characteristics are often interrelated. For example, economic disadvantage is associated with lower academic readiness and such students are more likely to enroll part-time or at less selective institutions. These students may be more likely to face academic or financial challenges during their first year, resulting in lower overall persistence.
Research on the first-year persistence rates of North Carolina high school graduates is consistent with past research using national samples. Overall persistence was higher among:
The data for first-year persistence by state was downloaded from the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) Research Center.
The NSC is a nonprofit organization that provides postsecondary enrollment data and verification for more than 3,750 colleges and universities in the United States.
This was a direct download from the NSC Research Center.
The first-year persistence rate is limited to first-time fall enrollments. First-time means that students were not previously enrolled in college and had not previously completed a degree or a certificate. Former dual enrollment students are included if “their enrollment or degree record prior to the entering cohort year was before the student turned 18 years old.” Fall enrollment means an enrollment term that began between August 1 and October 31.
Collectively, the institutions covered by the NSC data serve 97% of all postsecondary students nationwide and 98% of students in North Carolina. The NSC data does not cover all institutional sectors equally, however, and has lower coverage rates of for-profit institutions. More detail on NSC coverage is available here.
Former dual enrollment students will be excluded if their enrollment or degree record prior to the entering cohort year was after they turned 18 years old.
Students who begin postsecondary before August 1 or after October 31 are excluded from the analysis.
The data used in the development of this indicator is derived from administrative records and is subject to non-sampling error.
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Burrus, J., Elliott, D., Brenneman, M., Markle, R., Carney, L., Moore, G., Betancourt, A., et al. (2013). Putting and Keeping Students on Track: Toward a Comprehensive Model of College Persistence and Goal Attainment. Princeton, NJ: ETS.
Crissman Ishler, J. L., & Upcraft, M. L. (2005). The keys to first-year student persistence27-46. In Upcraft, Gardner, & Barefoot (Eds.), Challenging and supporting the first-year student: A handbook for improving the first year of college. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Mattern, K. D., Marini, J. P., & Shaw, E. J. (2015). Identification of multiple nonreturner profiles to inform the development of targeted college retention interventions. Journal of College Student Retention: Research, Theory & Practice, 17(1), 18–43.
National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. (2019). Persistence & Retention – 2019. Herndon, VA: NSC Research Center.
Ross, T., Kena, G., Rathbun, A., Kewal Ramani, A., Zhang, J., Kristapovich, P., & Manning, E. (2012). Higher Education: Gaps in Access and Persistence Study (NCES 2012-046). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
Tippett, R., & Kahn, N. (2018). Postsecondary Persistence Report: 2009-2016 North Carolina Public High School Graduates. Raleigh, NC: myFutureNC.
Retention and persistence are both metrics that capture a student’s progress through postsecondary:
Because retention rates are limited to progress within the same initial institution, they are lower than persistence rates.